It's part of the industry maturing; it has happened with a number of consumer-electronic products -- from radios and TVs to VCRs and DVD players to PCs and mobile phones. As penetration levels rise, demand begins to reflect replacement activity on the part of the existing install base.
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While we all love our smartphones, -- and there are those of you who sleep with them, you know who you are - the harsh reality is the decline in shipments was bound to happen. The culprit according to the first-quarter round-up of reports is "the disappearance of China's first-time buyers." ComScore (SCOR) has reported that at the end of March, 77% of mobile subscribers in the U.S. owned a smartphone. By comparison, market-research firm Counterpoint says that smartphones have a more than a 90% penetration level in China.
Now before we get all Debbie Downer on the smartphone business, we knew this was going to happen at some point and here it is. If we look at the mobile-phone market, odds are we will slip into a seasonal demand pattern fueled by the latest smartphone models being released ahead of the year-end holiday season.
Apple (AAPL - Get Report) has already altered its annual iPhone unveiling to fit this cycle, while Samsung (SSNLF), HTC and others have been doing that for years. On the downside, it means that pricing and market share will become the key battleground at the expense of profits. Apple generates the vast majority of the industry's profits, and so it's going to get much worse for Samsung, Sony (SNE),Lenovo's (LNVGY) Motorola unit, Microsoft (MSFT) and others.
At the same time, however, several mobile markets are growing, namely theconnected home and car as well as wearable devices. Other opportunities, such asiBeacons and mobile health, are also starting to develop as are mobile payments. In short, despite the maturing smartphone slowdown, chip companies, such asQualcomm (QCOM), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), and ARM Holdings (ARMH), will continue to grow faster than smartphone shipments. That's particularly true for Skyworks and Qorvo (QRVO) as they continue to see growth in revenue per device.
It's not surprising to see chip stocks trade off on the smartphone-shipment news, and that gives you an opportunity to get ready for the back half of 2015. More smartphone shipments in the second half of the year - which has been the trend - likely means higher revenue and profits for the chip companies as original equipment manufacturers increase production to meet holiday demand. Put it all together and use any real weakness to add to Skyworks and Qorvo.
While we all love our smartphones, -- and there are those of you who sleep with them, you know who you are - the harsh reality is the decline in shipments was bound to happen. The culprit according to the first-quarter round-up of reports is "the disappearance of China's first-time buyers." ComScore (SCOR) has reported that at the end of March, 77% of mobile subscribers in the U.S. owned a smartphone. By comparison, market-research firm Counterpoint says that smartphones have a more than a 90% penetration level in China.
Now before we get all Debbie Downer on the smartphone business, we knew this was going to happen at some point and here it is. If we look at the mobile-phone market, odds are we will slip into a seasonal demand pattern fueled by the latest smartphone models being released ahead of the year-end holiday season.
Apple (AAPL - Get Report) has already altered its annual iPhone unveiling to fit this cycle, while Samsung (SSNLF), HTC and others have been doing that for years. On the downside, it means that pricing and market share will become the key battleground at the expense of profits. Apple generates the vast majority of the industry's profits, and so it's going to get much worse for Samsung, Sony (SNE),Lenovo's (LNVGY) Motorola unit, Microsoft (MSFT) and others.
At the same time, however, several mobile markets are growing, namely theconnected home and car as well as wearable devices. Other opportunities, such asiBeacons and mobile health, are also starting to develop as are mobile payments. In short, despite the maturing smartphone slowdown, chip companies, such asQualcomm (QCOM), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), and ARM Holdings (ARMH), will continue to grow faster than smartphone shipments. That's particularly true for Skyworks and Qorvo (QRVO) as they continue to see growth in revenue per device.
It's not surprising to see chip stocks trade off on the smartphone-shipment news, and that gives you an opportunity to get ready for the back half of 2015. More smartphone shipments in the second half of the year - which has been the trend - likely means higher revenue and profits for the chip companies as original equipment manufacturers increase production to meet holiday demand. Put it all together and use any real weakness to add to Skyworks and Qorvo.
By Chris Versace
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