Thursday, March 17, 2016

How to find the next million-dollar idea



I'm often asked what has driven my career as a serial entrepreneur. Here are the steps that I go through for each new venture I embark on. I call them "The Five C's" of entrepreneurship.

Creativity

The first act of creation is in the mind. Before you can do it, you have to think of it. It's that simple.
A massive business opportunity is right in front of you. Right now. But do you see it? How about that new product that billions of people around the world want? Still don't see? Trust me, it's there. The biggest obstacle standing between you and the goals you want is your own creativity. Imagination is an ocean of wealth that anyone can access. It never runs out! Here are two practical steps to harness creativity as an entrepreneur.
First, practice awareness. Be more conscious of how you and others are feeling. Get off auto-pilot mode as you experience life. Annoyed you can't find a cab? Delighted you could order food in one minute? Note it. Second, apply imagination to the pain or opportunity you've identified. These pains often linger in my mind for weeks, months and sometimes years before a solution comes to me. To nurture my imagination, I engage in meditation, music, travel or other activities that loosen my mind and snap me out of routines and habits. The magical moment is when the idea that cures the pain comes to you and you understand how a combination of business models, technologies, processes, products and go-to-market strategies will solve the problem.

Clarity

After you've thought through the business design that cures a pain, the next step I take is to focus on the precise nature of the opportunity. Is the market large enough? Who exactly is your customer or user? What are the other options to solve the problem? Is yours better?
"A massive business opportunity is right in front of you. Right now. But do you see it?"
One thing to watch out for at this stage is your ego. Are you engaged in selective listening, downplaying your potential customer's concerns and over-valuing your solution? Do you just have third-party market research data or do you have an intimate knowledge of the problem or opportunity? It is very easy for the desire to become an entrepreneur to overshadow the importance of knowing the facts and, even worse, ignoring information that points to significant flaws in your business idea. I have made this mistake.

Conviction

After clarity on the attractiveness of the business opportunity, the next step is to get enough conviction to take action toward launching the business. Should you quit your job or invest your family's savings to build a prototype? Only you can answer this question because everyone has a different species of fear. It is fear of all the things that can — and will — go wrong.
I've found that one of the best ways to manage this fear is through visualization. No data, market research or opinions of others will replace this. A powerful guide to overcome your fear is compelling imagery of the end goal in your mind. I remember "seeing" my start-up idea being popular and used by many as I pondered leaving the hedge fund I worked for in 2004. It was as if I got a sneak peek into the future and all I had to do was jump toward the inevitable. I quit my job in December and started working full time on my idea. I worked from my apartment with one developer in Russia building Hopstop, a company that would solve the problem of getting around large cities with the use of train, bus and walking. Apple acquired Hopstop in 2013.

Capital and Connections

An entrepreneur with the best idea in the world will not get funding nor find strong team members if they don't have the relationship capital to get the attention of investors and potential employees. It is relationship capital that usually leads to venture funding (financial capital) or success in recruiting a strong team (human capital).
How many times have you found that perfect employee, adviser or investor on Linkedin and found you didn't have the 1-2 degrees of connection needed for a warm intro? This is probably my biggest challenge as an entrepreneur for every company I've started. I am sure other entrepreneurs feel the pain of access and attention. It is also understandable that professionals have to make decisions on how to split their time between work, family and other commitments. So how do you allow strangers to connect with you while managing your limited time? That's the problem my new start-up, Gigameet, plans to address. The company facilitates high-impact one-hour meetings for a fee and a portion of the fee goes to support the professional's charity.

Concentration and Confidence

The next step is execution, which requires concentration. I was fortunate to have sat on HopStop's board with Yaron Galai. He taught me about the importance of focusing on the core user proposition, product and experiments. There are countless resources to help you at this stage. If you are a first time Internet entrepreneur, I suggest you listen to all the videos by Y-combinator and Michael Skok. The journey will always have highs and lows and you will often doubt yourself. Try not to. Have the confidence to continue pushing along until you've fine-tuned your product and found the levers for your business to achieve rapid growth. I wish you the best on your own journey.
Commentary by Chinedu Echeruo, the founder of three Internet companies: HopStop, Tripology and Gigameet. He lives in New York City. Follow him on Twitter @cuecheruo.

Source:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/16/how-to-find-the-next-million-dollar-idea-commentary.html

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

2016 IPO Prospects: Twilio Expected To Go Public Soon

Summary

Image result for Twilio
Twilio provides application programming interface services to allow developers to add voice, video, text and picture messaging to any app.
Twilio is privately held and keeps financials under cover. Reports suggest the company had earned $100 million in revenues in 2014 and was adding over $1 million in recurring revenues a week since then.
It has yet to turn a profit.
Twilio is venture funded so far with $234 million raised from investors.
A recent Research and Markets report on the Global Web-Based Real-Time communication market projects the industry will grow 36% annually over the period 2016 through 2020. While the the biggest vendors in the market are Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Mozilla, other smaller vendors are making their presence felt. One such player is San Francisco-based Twilio (Private:TWILO).
Twilio's Financials
Twilio provides application programming interface (API) services to allow developers to add voice, video, text and picture messaging to any app. It was only last year that Twilio added video capability to their offerings. Twilio's platform relies on AWS infrastructure and offers telephony services in the cloud used in apps such as those offered by Hulu, Uber, Airbnb, and eBay, to name a few.
Twilio earns revenue by charging their customers a fee based on the pay-for-what-you-use model. Twilio's customers are able to pay low per-minute rates to connect and route voice calls to over 200 countries, communicate over VoIP to browser or mobile apps. Twilio is able to offer low rates due to their extensive partnerships with more than 100 telephony carriers globally. Besides voice calls, Twilio earns revenues by providing SMS and MMS capabilities and setting up VoIPs, IP infrastructure and connectivity and termination coverage-related services.
Twilio is privately held and keeps its financials under cover. Recent news reports suggest that the company had earned $100 million in revenues in 2014 and was adding over $1 million in recurring revenues a week since then. It is yet to turn in profits.
Twilio is venture funded so far with $234 million raised from investors including Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Redpoint Ventures, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Bessemer Venture Partners, Union Square Ventures, K9 Ventures, 500 Startups, SV Angel, Lowercase Capital, Mitchell Kapoor, David Cohen, and Founders Fund. Its last funding round was held in July last year when Twilio raised $130 million in a round led by Fidelity and T. Rowe Price at a valuation of $1.1 billion. An earlier round in 2013 had valued them at $500 million.
Market rumors suggest that Twilio has now filed for an IPO under the JOBS Act. The Act allows companies with revenues of less than $1 billion to file for an IPO confidentially. It would be expected to submit detailed financials and other filings closer to the date of the IPO road show.
Twilio's Competition
Bigger vendors aside, Twilio has enough competition from other smaller players in the industry. Among smaller vendors, Twilio's closest rivals include Sinch, Nexmo, and Plivo, all of whom offer similar services at marginally different price points.
To help keep these vendors at bay, Twilio has been expanding its offerings. Last year, Twilio announced the acquisition of Authy for an undisclosed sum. A Y Combinator backed start-up, Authy provided two-factor authentication services to end users, developers and enterprises. At the time of the acquisition, Authy had a listing of over 6,000 sites that used its services to protect their users. The acquisition will help Twilio in simplifying the authentication and verification experience for its customers.
By Sramana Mitra

Monday, February 1, 2016

TransUnion - How It's Fared Since the 2015 IPO (TRU)

Image result for transunion

TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) is a risk services and financial information provider to businesses and consumers. It is a household name and one of the three largest credit reporting agencies in the United States along with Experian and Equifax. The company has a growing presence in overseas markets, which include South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Hong Kong and India. TransUnion is based in Chicago, and it launched its initial public offering (IPO) on June 25, 2015, by selling about 30 million common shares for a price of $22.50 a share.

Business Overview

TransUnion mostly makes money by selling consumers' data to companies that want aggregated or individual consumer reports, risk scores and other information deemed important in determining credit risk of a particular person. TransUnion furnishes credit information and other information products to thousands of businesses and millions of consumers worldwide.
Health care, insurance and banking industries frequently use TransUnion's services to access accurate credit information to make various business decisions, primarily the extension of credit. Landlords and cellphone companies ask for credit reports from TransUnion to judge their potential customers' willingness to pay bills based on prior credit history. The company operates in a segment of the financial services industry highly concentrated with high barriers to entry due to the effort and time it takes to create a large proprietary database on consumers.

Financial Performance

TransUnion demonstrated an annual growth rate of 10.3% from 2013 to 2014. The most recent 12-month trailing data as of Sept. 30, 2015, indicates the company is likely to post another 10% increase in revenues for 2015. TransUnion is in a growth mode, as there are still plenty of organic growth opportunities due to the health demand for its consumer credit reports, and analytical and risk management services from financial and health care companies. The rise of peer-to-peer lending companies and marketplace lenders, such as Lending Club and Social Finance Inc., provides an additional boost to the company's revenues.


Despite growth in its top line, TransUnion's operating income remained stagnant in 2013-2015. As of January 2016, it recently completed major acquisitions, which increased its operating and integration costs of acquired companies. The company is still growing and increasing its head count and marketing efforts to stay ahead of the curve.

TransUnion's Stock Performance

After debuting on the New York Stock Exchange with a closing price of $25.40, TransUnion showed a one-year high of $27.98 and a one-year low of $23.19. December 2015 and January 2016 were very volatile months for the U.S. stock market. The company's stock declined from its one-year high and was trading in the range of $25 to $26 in January 2016. If investors had purchased TransUnion's stock on June 30, 2015, the stock's fourth day of trading, at a closing price of $25.10, they would have made a very negligible cumulative profit in the range of 1 to 2%.


Sunday, January 31, 2016

Week Ahead: Biotechs Could Snap IPO Drought

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 Includes: BGNEEDITMAPINORTOTGPLXPSCCI
February is kicking off with four potential biotech pricings, including heavy hitters Editas Medicine and BeiGene.
These two IPOs could breathe life back into the IPO market after a deal-less January and the Nasdaq Biotech Index, which is down 21% YTD.
Image result for initial public offeringCRISPR's public markets debut
Early-stage biotech Editas Medicine (Pending:EDIT) represents the public market's first opportunity to invest in the massively hyped CRISPR/Cas9 technology, which could permanently fix up to 6,000 genetic diseases through gene editing. The biggest risk Editas faces is an ongoing legal battle over who owns the CRISPR/Cas9 IP. That said, the smart money is on Editas' side. After a $43 million seed round in 2013-2014, Editas raised a $120 million Series B last summer from 15+ highly reputable investors. Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan are joint bookrunners on this $100 million deal.
China's biotech beauty
BeiGene (Pending:BGNE), the China-domiciled oncology biotech is targeting the 20-25% of the world's cancer patients who reside in China. If approved, its lead drug, which is similar to AbbVie's blockbuster ibrutinib (est. $1b 2015 sales), will enjoy a 5-7 year advantage over non-Chinese competitors due to the accommodative domestic regulatory pathway. Insiders Baker Brothers and Hillhouse Capital have indicated an interest for up to 50% of the estimated $127 million deal. Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Cowen are joint bookrunners.
Two additional biotechs; two day-to-day deals remain
Delayed-release aspirin developer PLx Pharma (Pending:PLXP) (est. $68 million) and enhanced generics developer Mapi-Pharma (Pending:MAPI) ($50 million) are also on the calendar next week. Both companies are developing novel formulations of FDA approved drugs and plan to use the FDA's simplified 505(b)(2) pathway. The week could also see pricings from Shimmick Construction (SCCI) and Nordic Realty (NORT), who are still day-to-day.
Renaissance Capital's IPO Calendar - Week of 2/1/2016
Issuer
Business
Symbol
Exchange
Deal Size
$mil
Price Range
Shares Filed
Lead Manager(s)
BeiGene
Beijing, China
BGNE
Nasdaq
$127
$22.00 - $24.00
5,500,000
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Chinese biotech developing cancer therapies for China and global markets.
Editas Medicine
Cambridge, MA
EDIT
Nasdaq
$100
$16.00 - $18.00
5,900,000
Morgan Stanley
J.P. Morgan
Developing gene editing therapies based on CRISPR/Cas9 technology.
SCCI
Nasdaq
$75
$11.00 - $13.00
6,250,000
FBR Capital Markets
Provides heavy civil construction services to public agencies in California.
Nordic Realty Trust
New York, NY
NORT
Nasdaq
$75
$15.00
5,000,000
Wunderlich Securities
REIT newly formed to acquire office and industrial properties in Norway.
PLx Pharma
Houston, TX
PLXP
Nasdaq
$68
$17.00 - $19.00
3,800,000
Raymond James
Maxim Group LLC
Commercializing a delayed-release aspirin based on its proprietary lipid coating.
Mapi-Pharma
Ness Ziona, Israel
MAPI
Nasdaq
$50
$15.00 - $17.00
3,125,000
JMP Securities
Developing extended-release formulations of existing drugs and generics.
IPO Pipeline Update: 
Airport concession operator OTG EXP (Pending:OTG) set terms to raise up to $553 million. Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD), at-home compression therapy device seller, filed to raise $86 million.
IPO Market Snapshot 
By January 29 last year, 14 IPOs had priced, compared to none so far in 2016. The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. The Renaissance IPO Index is down 15% year-to-date, compared to -5% for the S&P 500. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG). The Renaissance International IPO Index is down 9% year-to-date, compared to -6% for ACWX. Renaissance Capital's International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF Holdings include NN Group and Recruit Holdings.

Friday, June 19, 2015

IPO Preview: Fogo De Chão


Summary

    Image result for fogo de chão brazilian steakhouse
  • A leading Brazilian steakhouse, or churrascaria, which has specialized for over 35 years in fire-roasting high-quality meats utilizing the centuries-old Southern Brazilian cooking technique of churrasco.
  • 37 restaurants in the US, Mexico & Brazil. Growth plan to 100.
  • Q1 rev +6% to $65mm. Q1 profits +69%. P/E ratio 18.3.
  • '14 World Club resulted in high sales.
Based in Dallas, TX, Fogo de Chão (Pending:FOGO) scheduled a $75 million IPO on Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $463 million at a price range midpoint of $17 for Thursday, June 18, 2015.
Manager, Joint-managers: Jefferies, J.P. Morgan
Co-managers: Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, Piper Jaffray, Wells Fargo Securities, Macquarie Capital
End of lockup (180 days): Tuesday, December 15, 2015
End of 25-day quiet period: Monday, July 13, 2015
Summary
FOGO is a leading Brazilian steakhouse, or churrascaria, which has specialized for over 35 years in fire-roasting high-quality meats utilizing the centuries-old Southern Brazilian cooking technique of churrasco.
FOGO believd it is in the early stages of our growth with 37 current restaurants, 26 in the United States, 10 in Brazil and one in Mexico, the first joint venture restaurant. Based on internal analysis and a study prepared by Buxton, FOGO believes there exists long-term potential for over 100 new domestic sites and additional new restaurants internationally
Valuation
Glossary
Accumulated deficit ($mm)
.
.
-$42
Per share dilution
.
.
-$20.85
Valuation Ratios
Mrkt Cap ($mm)
Price /Sls
Price /Erngs
Price /BkVlue
Price /TanBV
% offered in IPO
Fogo de Chão
$462
1.8
18.3
2.3
-4.4
16%
annualizing Q1 '15 proforma
Conclusion
Buy
37 restaurants in the US, Mexico & Brazil
Growth plan to 100
Q1 rev +6% to $65mm
Q1 profits +69%
P/E ratio 18.3
Price to book 2.3,Price to tangible book -4-4
'14 World Club resulted in high sales
To put the conclusions and observations in context, the following is reorganized, edited and summarized from the full S-1 referenced above.
Image result for fogo de chão brazilian steakhouseBusiness
FOGO is a leading Brazilian steakhouse, or churrascaria, which has specialized for over 35 years in fire-roasting high-quality meats utilizing the centuries-old Southern Brazilian cooking technique of churrasco..

Growth plan

FOGO believed it is in the early stages of our growth with 37 current restaurants, 26 in the United States, 10 in Brazil and one in Mexico, the first joint venture restaurant. Based on internal analysis and a study prepared by Buxton, FOGO believes there exists long-term potential for over 100 new domestic sites and additional new restaurants internationally
2014 FIFA World Cup and Recent Events in Brazil
The 2014 World Cup (the "World Cup") took place in Brazil from June 12 to July 13, 2014. The event positively impacted operating results for Fiscal 2014 because FOGO's Brazil restaurants are located in cities that hosted World Cup matches.
Of the 64 World Cup matches, 32 were hosted in cities where FOGO operates. We estimate that the World Cup positively impacted revenue by approximately $5.0 million for Fiscal 2014. Comparable restaurant sales for our Brazil restaurants grew approximately 11.4% for Fiscal 2014.
Adjusting comparable restaurant sales to exclude the impact of the World Cup FODO estimates that comparable restaurant sales for Brazil restaurants grew approximately 1.7% for Fiscal 2014.
As a result of the impact the World Cup had on 2014 results in Brazil, FOGO expects comparable restaurant sales in Brazil to be lower in the second and the third quarter of 2015 as compared to the same quarters of 2014.
Additionally, in March and April of 2015, a series of protests began in Brazil against the current government and President. The initial protests occurred in cities throughout Brazil, including in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo, on March 15, with protesters generally reported to number around a million, and continued throughout the remainder of March and into April.
As a result of the protests, restaurants in Brazil experienced reduced guest traffic in the second half of March and in April. Protests currently continue throughout Brazil and FOGO anticipates that results of operations in the second quarter of Fiscal 2015 could be impacted by the ongoing political activity.

Restaurant Development

Over the next five years FOGO plans to increase company-owned restaurant count by at least 10% annually, with North America being our primary market for new restaurant development. In addition, over the next five years, FOGO plans to open three to five new restaurants in Brazil.
Intellectual property
FOGO's principal trademarks include FOGO, FOGO DE CHÃO, BAR FOGO, and its campfire design, which FOGO has registered with the United States Patent and Trademark Office. FOGO has also registered or applied for registration of the FOGO EXPRESS, FOGO GRILL, BAR FOGO, FOGO TO GO, THE GAUCHO WAY OF PREPARING MEAT, and various designs as trademarks in the United States. In addition, FOGO has registered or applied for FOGO DE CHÃO, FOGO'S, various FOGO and FOGO DE CHÃO-formative terms, its campfire design, and other terms as trademarks in Brazil. Several of FOGO's principal marks are also registered or applied-for in numerous foreign countries.
Competition
FOGO's restaurants compete with a number of restaurants within their markets, both locally owned restaurants and other restaurants that are members of regional or national chains based on the quality and variety of its menu offering, its service model and its authentic Brazilian cuisine.
FOGO's competition continues to intensify as competitors increase the breadth and depth of their product offerings and open new restaurants. FOGO competes in the full-service dining category with other Brazilian-style steakhouses and local and national upscale steakhouses such as Ruth's Chris, Del Frisco's and the Capital Grille.
5% shareholders pre-IPO
Todd M. Abbrecht 91.66%
Douglas A. Haber 91.66%
Jeff T. Swenson 91.66%
Funds affiliated with Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. 91.66%
Dividends
No dividends are planned.
Use of proceeds
FOGO expects to receive $67 million from its IPO and use it for the following:
To repay the outstanding indebtedness under its Senior Credit Facilities and to pay fees and expenses related to its initial public offering and the refinancing of its Senior Credit Facilities.
Affiliates of certain of the underwriters are lenders under FOGO's First Lien Credit Facility and will be repaid with a portion of the proceeds of this offering.
Because affiliates of Credit Suisse Securities (NYSE:USA) LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC are lenders under FOGO's First Lien Credit Facility and each will receive 5% or more of the net proceeds of this offering, Credit Suisse Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC are each deemed to have a "conflict of interest" under Rule 5121 of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc., or FINRA.
Disclaimer: This FOGO IPO report is based on a reading and analysis of FOGO's S-1 filing, which can be found here, and a separate, independent analysis by IPOdesktop.com. There are no unattributed direct quotes in this article.